Connecticut would lose $5.9 billion in Medicaid funding from
2019 to 2028 under the American Health Care Act passed by the House last month,
according to a new
report from the Urban Institute and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. Connecticut
would likely not be in a position to fill that funding gap with state funds. The
authors note that provider rate and benefit cuts are unlikely to generate much in
savings. If the AHCA passes, Connecticut would have to decide whether to fill
some or all of the gap with state funds and/or cut eligibility to ease state
funding. If Connecticut chooses to cut only the 168,300 people estimated to
have gained coverage under the Affordable Care Act by 2022, the state funding
gap drops to $900 million over those ten years. If Connecticut chooses to cut
eligibility enough to keep state Medicaid spending level, 179,600 more people
would be uninsured by 2022. The report’s authors point out that their estimates
are very sensitive to changes in Medicaid spending growth and per capita cap
growth rates.
